Thoughts to Ponder . . .
- Silence is golden, unless you have kids, then silence is just plain suspicious.
- If we shouldn’t eat at night, why is there a light in the fridge?
- A relationship without trust is like a cell phone with no service, all you can do is play games.
- All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn’t hurt.
- Laughing is one of the best exercises, it’s like running inside your mind. You can do it almost anywhere and it’s even better with a friend.
And now on to the Market Update . . .
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: It seems that positive home data is beginning to slip. According to Case-Shiller home prices in the 20 major cities measured for the month of June slipped by 0.1 percent. This is the 3rd straight month of declining prices. Compared to the same time last year, prices remain higher by 5.1 percent. Although still in positive territory, the distance between prices today versus a year ago is also slipping. The highest breath between this year and last year was 5.7 percent back in January.
The Pacific Northwest continues to be the main area of the country where declining housing trends are non-existent. Prices in Portland Oregon are 12.6 percent higher than last year and Seattle remains in double digits with a 11.0 percent spread. California continues to remain higher with the difference between last year and this year sitting in the mid-single digits.
Pending Home Sales: The good news is that pending home sales jumped higher in July by 1.3 percent. The not so good news is that the jump occurred from the prior month’s revision from a positive 0.2 percent down to a negative 0.8 percent. This is one of the largest revisions we have seen and has many cautious about July’s increase in that it may very well be revised next month into negative territory the same as what just occurred for June.
Pending sales are up 1.4 percent from the same time last year. Although this does not show this sector of the market growing, it does bode well for a positive existing home sales report to be released later in the month.
Mortgage Rates and Applications: Mortgage rates continue to remain within striking distance of record lows. In a nice trend reversal, applications for purchases and refinances are both up for the week of August 26th. Purchase applications rose 1.0 percent and refinance apps jumped 4.0 percent. The prior week’s report showed declines of 0.3 percent and 3.0 percent respectively. Overall mortgage applications are up 5.0 percent from the same time last year according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.
Construction Spending: After the Census Bureau back in November revised 10 years of data lower due to a calculation error, many analysts are calling into question the overall accuracy of this index moving forward. The data continues to be looked at, however many experts are not willing to accept this data as a real trend indicator for the housing market. The latest data shows that from June to July spending remained unchanged. Compared to the same time last year construction spending is up 1.5 percent.
This week’s potential market moving reports are:
- Monday September 5th – US Holiday: Labor Day – All Markets Closed
- Tuesday September 6th – Labor Market Conditions & ISM Non-Mfg Index
- Wednesday September 7th – MBA Mortgage Applications & JOLTS Report
- Thursday September 8th – First Time Jobless Claims & EIA Petroleum Status
Joke of the Week!
My boss made me go into the office on Labor Day. Halfway through the day, he came in to check up on me and caught me having a beer.
He said to me, “You can’t drink while you’re working.”
I said, “Oh, don’t worry – I’m not working.”