Thoughts to Ponder and The Market Update June 19

 

Thoughts to Ponder . . .

• Why didn’t I use my turn signals? It’s nobody’s business where I’m going.
• Every morning I do 10 sit-ups, to hit the snooze button on my alarm clock.
• I’m looking to buy a new boomerang, how can I throw the old one out?
• Instead of calling it the John I’m going to start calling my bathroom the Jim. That way I can say I go to the Jim every morning.
• When I try on an outfit and it doesn’t make me look good, I just throw it on the floor. Like, no, you don’t deserve to be hung up, think about what you’ve done.

 

And Now on to The Market Update . . .

I remember a time that the stock market would go wild in the days leading up to a Fed announcement about interest rates.

• This week at the FOMC meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by ¼ percent.
• The announcement came out on Wednesday afternoon at 3:15PM, and investors reacted with little more than a yawn.
• The stock market ticked up about 80 points in the last 45 minutes of the trading day.
• By historical standards over the last 2 years, this movement in the market was equivalent to virtually no reaction.
• The interest rate increase by the Fed was expected by investors.
• The Fed has indicated that based upon current economic conditions and growth patterns, one additional rate increase is anticipated before the end of 2017.

 

The first half of 2017, the housing market has been very active.

• Recent surveys of real estate and mortgage professionals around the country have indicated, that in many parts of the country, the typical summer slow-down might be taking hold.
• The housing market remains quite active however activity has seemed to tail off slightly in many areas.

 

Builder sentiment reflects the recent slight slowdown in activity.

• The latest housing market index, which measures builder optimism, showed a slight drop from 69 to 67.
• Overall, the index remains very strong so by no means is this slight drop indicative of future problems for housing.
• In fact, the housing market index for future sales rose to an unusually high level of 76.

 

There have been more and more articles in recent weeks in which housing experts are discussing the possibility of an abnormally active fall market.

• It appears that homeowners are recognizing the growth in their home equity that has taken place in the last 24 months.
• Some homeowners are beginning to believe that it might be time to “take the money and run”.

 

In many markets around the country, more homes have come up for sale in the last 30 days.

• This has not necessarily translated into more inventory as homes are still selling as fast as they are listed because of all the pent-up demand.
• An increase in home listing in the month of June is NOT a common occurrence.
• Typically, new listings tend to decline in the summer months as schools let out and more families take their summer vacations.

 

Mortgage rates decline, and refinance applications tick up.

• For the week ending June 9^th, applications for refinancing jumped 9.0 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Purchase applications declined by a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent.
• The Memorial Day Holiday likely played a role in the slight drop for the week.

 

This week there are very few reports that might influence investor decisions.

Expect the stock market to remain relatively flat unless some geopolitical events impact the United States. This week’s potential market moving reports are:

• Wednesday June 21^st – MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales
• Thursday June 22^nd – First Time Jobless Claims, FHFA House Price Index
• Friday June 23^rd – New Home Sales